Economic weakness in global tourism: bring different development trend

On Tuesday, the international monetary fund (IMF) released by the global economic forecasts may bring some travel executives vigilance, suspension of business, for business development of short-term driver is slightly lower than expected in early 2019.


The IMF forecasts the global economy would slow to 3.2% this year, this is also the slowest pace in 10 years.The latest forecast of puzzling is that the profit growth of tourism is still very strong.


In American, delta air lines report second-quarter revenue growth of 8%, profits double-digit growth rates.


The IMF updated report reflects its forecast for global economic development on only slightly change, down 0.3% compared with the forecast in January.In contrast, last year's global economic growth rate of 3.7%.


Relevant analysts said: "tourism is an important part of the world economy, world GDP (economic output measure) the proportion of over 10%, which is the IMF data important influence on the market."


Emerging market decline in economic development


The IMF said the global economic development growth by most occurred in the emerging markets.However, in most developed economies, tourism has always been one bright spot.


Analysts said: "in the first half of 2019 tourism strong demand for the rest of the year may remain strong."


The tourism economic ties


During the great depression, the American consumer travel spending fell by 10%, 3.7 times that of slower decline in overall spending budget, and overall spending fell by 2.7% in 2009.


Analysts doubt similar pattern will repeat itself in the next recession.After all, travelling is a discretionary items, more easily than mortgage cuts.


Tariff negotiations and the United States this year Britain to take off the European uncertainty could undermine the confidence of the people.India, venezuela, Iran and much of Latin America's economic uncertainty brings to the IMF forecasts, the gulf and other hot spots of the potential threat of political turmoil also exist this kind of influence.


But the other still more positive economic news headlines, Argentina and Turkey growth seems to be on the rise.In addition, some central Banks are taking steps to, by adopting may keep growth policies in response to worries about weak demand.


Many economies in the sustainable development, so the tourism enterprises should continue to maintain a good business.


Analysts said, as the expansion of the global middle class and people like to use disposable income to experience things, the development of tourism may be faster than most other markets.


Have agency predicted global hotel rooms inventory will reach 17.5 million this year, growth is slightly lower than 2%, flat from previous years, global hotel revenue will reach about $550 billion, 4% higher than that of 2018.Considering the occupancy rate and the advantage of prices, the cruise industry will continue to maintain strong growth in 2019.


Last year the WTTC data show that in 2018, the global tourism development at the rate of 3.9%, contributing to the global economy $8.8 trillion, and create 319 million jobs in the world, and has been more than eight years of world GDP growth, and growth came in second in the world's major markets.Visible, the importance of the tourism industry in the global economy and the modern age, people, no matter the young or the old, in the improvement of living conditions, are all hope I can enjoy life more, more and more can feel different experience by means of travel.Tourism will stand out under the weak economy, tourism enterprises also need to be vigilant to the global economic development.